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HDB rental volume dipped again in December 2024, marking 12 consecutive months of declining rentalsIs It a Good Time To Sell My HDB Flat?Why are HDB prices hitting record highs?HDB resale prices rose 2.5% q-o-q in 4Q2024. While it marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases, the rate of growth has slowed slightly from the previous quarter. According to flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on Jan 2, the price increase in 4Q2024 was driven by growth in all flat types. However, the pace of growth has been slower for some flat types, such as four-room and two-room flats, which saw a q-o-q price increase of 2.5% and 2% respectively, in 4Q2024, compared to 3.4% and 3.9% in the previous quarter. Executive flats also registered a slower rate of growth at 1.2% q-o-q, compared to 1.7% in 3Q2024. Meanwhile, prices for five-room flats grew 3.2% in 4Q2024, faster than the 1.2% increase in 3Q2024.Despite the slower pace of growth, the flash estimates showed that HDB resale prices grew by 9.6% in 2024, doubling the 4.9% growth in 2023. However, it was still slower than the 10.4% price increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021. According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, one reason for the slower growth in resale prices could be attributed to the government’s intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. She also notes that the launch of over 8,500 new flats in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many units in prime and desirable locations, may have diverted some demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market. Additionally, the seasonal year-end school holidays, when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad, may have also contributed to the slowdown in sales and price growth. However, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, believes that the slower pace of growth could be a result of the thinner resale volume during the quarter, which may have put a drag on prices.Furthermore, the flash estimates also showed a decline in resale volume in 4Q2024, with a 3.6% decrease y-o-y to 6,314 units from 6,547 transactions in 4Q2023. This was also a 22.5% drop q-o-q from 8,142 units in 3Q2024. Sun attributes the decline to the launch of the new BTO flats in October, which may have diverted demand away from the resale market. She also points out that the ongoing supply of BTO flats is expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market.However, despite the overall decrease in resale volume, the total number of million-dollar flat transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year. Toa Payoh town had the highest number of million-dollar resale flats deals in 4Q2024, with 58 such transactions – 20 of which were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).OrangeTee’s Sun believes that the new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations due to the limitations and restrictions of BTO flats. She also expects prices to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower pace than in previous years, as prices in many areas have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for some potential buyers.ERA’s Eugene Lim also expects resale prices to grow at a more measured pace in 2025, projecting a 3% to 6% growth, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale units changing hands by the end of 2025. Similarly, PropNex expects prices to rise by 5% to 7%, supported by a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units. Huttons Asia’s Lee Sze Teck is projecting a 5% to 8% growth in resale prices, with a resale volume of 26,000 to 28,000 units by the end of 2025. Overall, it seems that the HDB resale market is expected to continue performing well in 2025, although prices may grow at a slower pace due to a reduced supply of flats reaching MOP. The ongoing supply of BTO flats is also expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market. As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers may continue to turn to the resale market, especially for those looking for homes in central locations.